Saturday, January 12, 2008

New Hampshire primary and polls

Last week's presidential primary not only surprised Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, but also pollsters that had totally been off the mark about the outcome.

Lies, Damned Lies and Polls - eMarketer is a great article about the validity and accuracy of polls.
. . . pollsters asked "Who will you vote for?" when what everyone actually wanted to know was "Who is going to win?" The answer to the first question on the Democratic side was "Obama," but the answer to the second proved to be "Clinton."

This was interesting reading about a predictive tool used for determining political strategies in presidential primaries. Also, there is commentary by six senior eMarketer analysts, each giving an opinion about the presidential race.

What factor will determine the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party? Will it be the importance of social networks, a candidate's ability in raise money, young people flocking to the polls, or the whimsy of the general voting public?

Keep 'em guessing, America!

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